Flu Vaccine Not As Effective As We Thought: Ring The Alarm?

Science is a funny thing. Just when you think you have it all figured out, something comes along that challenges the status quo, and we scientists end up going back to the drawing board. It happened to Einstein, believe it or not. When Edwin Hubble came along with observations that stated that the universe was expanding, Einstein didn’t quite want to believe it. When those observations were shown to be true, Einstein didn’t hold fast to his own views. He analyzed the evidence and judged it for what it was. Then he changed his mind.

Likewise, when we are talking about vaccines with an anti-vax person — and most discussions are not really about “talking” — the accusation comes up that we, the people who support and encourage the use of vaccines to prevent some horrible epidemics, somehow belong to a “cult” or a “religion” that worships vaccines. Nothing could be further from the truth. What we do is take in the evidence that has shown that vaccines — the licensed ones — are safe and effective against some nasty diseases. We weigh that evidence against what we know, and then we render judgment on that evidence.

Once in a while, like it happened with Einstein, something will come along to change our view about vaccines, or a vaccine, and we do change our view. Again, we weigh the evidence. (Can you see a recurring theme here?)

The National Association of County and City Health Officials (NACCHO) did an extensive study of the influenza vaccine in the United States. Guess what? It’s not as good as we thought it was.

Let that sink in for a minute or two.

Did you catch your breath? Well, you shouldn’t be out of breath to begin with because this is not earth-shattering news. It’s not to us epidemiologists, anyway. We’ve been noticing that, despite some pretty good vaccine coverages in different populations, we were still seeing some gnarly flu outbreaks each year. We were lacking the evidence on why this was occurring, but now we have it.

Here is the full report.

The long and short of it is that the flu vaccine is not as effective as public relations campaigns will have you believe. Were they lying? No. They were making those statements based on sub-par scientific evidence. (That’s why we weigh evidence before we render judgment, though it doesn’t always happen that way.) Also, the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) has been making some of the flu vaccine recommendations based on expert opinion and not hard data. So the NACCHO report suggests that better vaccines be developed, that current vaccine recommendations be based on hard data, and that we don’t stop vaccinating in light of this evidence.

Why not? Because the flu vaccine is still the best thing we have against a disease that kills thousands of Americans each year and millions worldwide. So, while we work on the next best thing — and we must — we must also continue to use what we have.

It’s kind of hard to think about this from a scientific point of view, so it will not surprise me at all if the anti-vax crowd twists and bends what is in the report to fit their views. I’ll bet you $5 that they will.

Nevertheless, this report tells us that there are dedicated public health officials looking at these things and not being afraid to criticize them. If Edwin had been afraid to tell Albert that his general theory of relativity was a bit off, our GPS systems would be off. (They really would.) So, while the anti-vax crowd will raise this report as a failure of vaccine policy in this country, I raise it here as a success.

Now that we know what is going on with the flu vaccine, we can make a better, more efficacious one. And that is not a bad thing at all.

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8 thoughts on “Flu Vaccine Not As Effective As We Thought: Ring The Alarm?

  1. Thank you for the post Reuben and it's an example of how much easier and honest it is to just follow the evidence no matter where it takes us.And "we're" the close-minded ones. [snort]

  2. As someone who is immune compromised,who had shingles at 32,and has nearly died a number of times from both pneumonia and meningitis,I am not at all happy with the rules so many hospitals,and other places that sell flu shots,like say CVS or Wal-Mart,have about restricting these shots to people over 65.

  3. Reuben,Very nice summation of the report, especially the emphasis that even though the vaccine is not as good as was thought, it is still better than nothing.As regards the anti-vaccine mindset, I wouldn't be surprised if they would argue that football pads should be scrapped, since they don't protect players 100% from injury.

  4. "But it is also a failure of educating the public on risk/reward estimations and on several health authorities deciding that internet "loons" don't sway public opinion at all."Orac, at Respectful Insolence has blogged about the $100,000 grant from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation to Seth Kalichman at U.Conn, for "Establishing an Anti-Vaccine Surveillance and Alert System". Ex-cop and lead investigator on that infamous Pace Law School *study* of supposed monetary awards to children for "vaccine-induced autism", wrote a scurrilous article posted on that notorious anti-vaccine website.We missed the boat Reuben, to apply for that grant. :-)http://scienceblogs.com/insolence/2012/10/09/why-its-not-a-good-idea/BTW Reuben, those internet "loons" are posting on yet another LaCrosse Tribune blog about Brian Deer's seminars at the University of Wisconsin. They are still b*tching about Wakefield not being invited to the University to "debate" Brian Deer:http://lacrossetribune.com/news/opinion/michael-winfrey-former-doctor-was-not-invited-to-uw-l/article_77a7ee6a-13ea-11e2-9389-001a4bcf887a.html?comment_form=true

  5. I see it all the time. If a vaccine fails, or if one child gets injured by it, then we should scrap the whole damn thing until we have something that is as safe as a saline water injection. It is pathetic.But it is also a failure of educating the public on risk/reward estimations and on several health authorities deciding that internet "loons" don't sway public opinion at all.

  6. "It's kind of hard to think about this from a scientific point of view, so it will not surprise me at all if the anti-vax crowd twists and bends what is in the report to fit their views. I'll bet you $5 that they will."That would be a very bad bet, Reuben.Look at how the anti-vaccine crowd is posting all over the internet, when pertussis outbreaks, were reported in children who were fully immunized with DTaP vaccine. http://children.webmd.com/vaccines/dtap-and-tdap-vaccinesThese same anti-vaccine activists are fighting against mandatory school requirements for adolescents to receive the Tdap booster.Their *group think* regards any vaccine that is not 100 % effective, should not be used. Pathetic.

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