Spitting on the graves of children lost to influenza

A friend of mine who has worked in influenza surveillance for years send to me this blog post from the Huffington Post. It’s written by Lawrence Solomon, who, by all accounts, has zero experience in infectious diseases or epidemiology. Still, that doesn’t stop him from attempting to write about influenza deaths in an authoritative way, quoting, what else,  anti-vaccine and anti-science material. In fact, I need not go farther than his first sentence to know what he’s all about in this post:

“Flu results in “about 250,000 to 500,000 yearly deaths” worldwide, Wikipedia tells us. “The typical estimate is 36,000 [deaths] a year in the United States,” reports NBC, citing the Centers for Disease Control. “Somewhere between 4,000 and 8,000 Canadians a year die of influenza and its related complications, according to the Public Health Agency of Canada,” the Globe and Mail says, adding that “Those numbers are controversial because they are estimates.””

Why are these number estimates? It’s simple. We can’t possibly count each and every single case of influenza, or influenza-related deaths, in the world. What we can do is use the tools of science and mathematics to come up with a best estimate. If you read further in Lawrence Solomon’s piece in the Huffington Post, you’d think that we epidemiologists come up with these numbers at random, or, if we do use science and math, that we adjust those numbers to some sort of agenda. To make his point, Lawrence Solomon goes to the latest go-to guy in Peter Doshi, PhD (who is not an epidemiologist of any sort but still wants to be some sort of authority on influenza and influenza vaccine science):

“Peer reviewed publications accept Dr. Doshi’s vaccine research, even if he doesn’t meet your standards. But are you saying that you would accept the views of epidemiologists who turned thumbs down on vaccines? It would be my pleasure to present some to you, if that is your test.”

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